基金经理如何使投资保持良好状态
The unprecedented volatility that began moving the markets in 2020 might finally be reversing a trend that emerged from the 2008 financial crisis: the rising popularity of passive vehicles like ETFs and index funds. 而低收费vnsr威尼斯城官网登入在牛市条件下具有吸引力, are some sectors of the asset management industry abandoning the search for alpha and the effort to outperform the market?
When you consider the primary narrative in the marketing of financial products to retail investors in the past five years, 你可能认为投资只与成本有关. Most of the retail marketing messages are more likely to compare the cost of trading or expense ratios rather than how well their funds perform or how they help investors realize better returns. 主要的信息是成本和费用优先于性能. 除了推广低成本被动指数和ETFvnsr威尼斯城官网登入, self-service propositions about access to research and sophisticated trading platforms are also being pushed, 好像在对投资者说, “这里有一些投资工具, 祝你好运，弄清楚市场。”. 随着投资变得更具交易性, 更多的自助服务, 而不是发现价值或机会的能力, 在一场不可持续的逐底收费竞赛中，会有任何迂回之路吗?
扭转趋势?
根据NMG咨询公司最近的一项调查, financial advisers in the UK said they planned to move assets from passive to actively managed funds due to the volatility caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Nearly a third of advisers said they expected to see a rise in assets invested in actively managed funds. The same survey showed nearly 1 in 4 advisers thought passive funds would see a drop in investment inflows.
在2018年2月的市场调整期间，道琼斯指数和S&由于对通胀的担忧，标普500指数下跌了10%, active managers consistently outperformed passive strategies throughout the downturn. Passive strategies also benefited from a 10-year bull market where virtually all indexes and sectors saw strong performance. The old cliché that a rising tide floats all boats was certainly proven during the previous cycle; but only when the tide goes out, 你发现谁在裸泳了吗.
据MarketWatch报道, 当市场在2020年开始经历波动时, many ETFs began trading at prices that were not in line with the underlying securities that comprise them. 另外, 指数行业vnsr威尼斯城官网登入报告, 约770,2019年，全球取消了1000个基准指数. These trends suggest that while passive funds lowered fees for the cost-conscious public, 让投资变得更容易, etf和指数基金比它们看起来要复杂得多.
重要的是要记住，在波动期间灵活性是很重要的. Passive funds are linked to the stocks contained in whatever index they are tracking. 另一方面, active managers have the freedom to choose whether to invest and can hold onto their cash when the market drops. 他们可以通过期权或退出交易来规避风险. 通过广泛的研究和尽职调查, active managers can also identify those “diamond in the rough” stocks that might otherwise be missed by an index investor. When specific securities within the market are highly correlated or moving in unison, 被动策略可能是更好的选择. 投资者可能会从被动和主动策略的混合中获益.
利用数据保持领先
Active managers looking for opportunity in volatile markets are relying on data as their primary weapon. Sophisticated hedge funds that employ quantitative trading strategies are evolving from forecasting to nowcasting, 哪个侧重于使用数据, 实时事件, 以及预测市场近期走势的处理能力. Recent advancements in data science and artificial intelligence further empower active managers with the ability to tap into enormous pools of data to feed their sentiment models and identify important trends and market risk indicators.
另一个数据市场正在爆炸式增长——网络搜索, 社交媒体情绪, geotracking; everything we do in modern life leaves a digital footprint – from political opinion to online purchasing habits. 主动和量化领域的赢家将展示他们的处理能力, 清洁, 并构造数据进行实时分析.
在动荡的市场中，获取数据变得更加关键. Availability of tools and alternative sources of data provide new capability to active managers that were not available even a few years ago. 通过利用数据科学和人工智能的最新进展, 投资组合经理, 交易员, 研究分析师可以获得独特的市场情报来提升他们的分析. They can tap into enormous pools of emerging alternative data sources to fuel their sentiment models, 帮助他们识别重要的交易趋势和市场风险指标.
Firms now have access to aggregated data on trading activity in key markets across a range of asset classes, 从股票到固定收益再到衍生品. They can track trading volumes broken out by security and investor type – such as hedge funds, 零售财富管理公司, 以及传统的做多资产管理公司. They can examine the movement of commercial paper and certificates of deposit rates, 并跟踪全球信用衍生品交易的头寸数据.
The ability to harness new sources of market data can serve as a major benefit and key value proposition for active managers looking to bring in clients. That is why having access to comprehensive and innovative market data can create a competitive advantage.
市场总是动态的——如果你在积极vs. 被动的辩论, citing performance differences over time – you will always find periods where the cycle is reversed. The impact of 新型冠状病毒肺炎 on the markets may shift the investment cycle and create more opportunities for active managers. 在这个波动周期中，分散度更高, 特别是与过去10年相比, where bull-market conditions saw large-cap stocks that were highly correlated and moved more on macro news – jobs reports, 政治事件, 中央银行政策, 等. 新型冠状病毒肺炎, 另一方面, created a market of winners and losers where price dispersion and relative performance of different business fluctuated dramatically. The relative fate between airline and pharma stocks amplifies this type of dispersion. 单个公司的健康状况, 以及疫情对消费需求带来的具体影响, 可能为主动型基金经理创造更好的机会.
The unprecedented events of 2020 provide an interesting perspective on the relative performance between active and passive portfolios under duress. 当一个投资组合在两周内损失20%到30%时, 你支付的管理费很低，这种想法很难让人感到安慰. 在市场动荡时期, it is essential to tap into the expertise offered by managers that look for relative value and opportunity in a new reality. Investors that look to forgo fees in favour of low-cost options could be losing out on return.
本文最初发表于 对冲基金杂志.